Memory Prices Surge 5–10 Times, Set to Hit a Decade High in 2027
Nov 09, 2026 07:41:06 | ZOL Original | By Yibian Shi de Yueliang
Over the past year, memory prices have climbed sharply by five to ten times, placing substantial cost pressure on numerous consumers. A key question dominating the market is whether this round of price hikes is about to peak and reverse, or will keep rising. A recent research report from Citi offers a relatively cautious outlook.
Fluctuations in memory prices are fundamentally driven by market supply demand dynamics, measured by the industry standard Supply to Demand (S/D) ratio. A negative S/D ratio signals supply falling short of demand; the more negative the figure, the more severe the supply shortage and the stronger upward price pressure. Conversely, a positive ratio points to looser supply and higher odds of price declines.
For most of the past decade, the memory market’s S/D ratio stayed slightly negative, with shortages generally ranging from 0.5 % to 2 %, keeping supply and demand broadly balanced. The last major supply glut occurred from 2022 to 2023, when the S/D ratio hit 16.9 %. Oversupply dragged memory prices to historic lows. For instance, 8 GB memory modules were priced as low as 99 RMB, a price point still remembered by many users.
Market conditions shifted markedly in 2025. Even though the S/D ratio only stood between 0.5 % and 1.1 % — indicating a mild shortage — memory prices have skyrocketed, with some models jumping nearly 8 10 fold. Looking ahead, the S/D ratio is projected to reach 3.8 % in 2027, its highest reading in nearly ten years, and remain around 3.6 % in 2028. This suggests memory prices will likely peak in these two years and stay at elevated levels.
Supply demand conditions will ease somewhat in 2029, with the shortage narrowing to 0.3 %. Nevertheless, shortages will widen again to 2.2 % in 2030 and 2.4 % in 2031. While less acute than in 2027 2028, the market will remain relatively tight, leaving risks of further price increases intact.
Notably, memory production capacity continues to expand steadily: output in 2031 is expected to double that of 2028 and triple the 2025 level. Even so, capacity expansion lags well behind demand growth and price gains. Prices multiplied several times amid modest supply surplus in 2025 2026. As shortages worsen to 3.8 % in 2027, chipmakers will gain greater room for price adjustments. Some analysts forecast memory prices could rise another 50 % in 2027 compared with 2026. For end users, cost relief is unlikely to arrive anytime soon.