Agencies Forecast Headwinds for Global Notebook Market in 2027, with Costs as a Core Factor

TrendForce’s latest report forecasts that the global notebook market will face low-single-digit decline pressure in 2027, driven by rising component costs. For branded manufacturers, balancing pricing, product specifications and profit margins will become critical amid price hikes of core components.

The key risk is shifting away from past supply constraints toward rising costs that hurt end-user demand. Shipments are likely to post a low-single-digit contraction, with further downward pressure possible. The shipment rebound seen in 2026 is described as a short-term trend rather than a genuine recovery in end-market demand — improved CPU supply, advance inventory build-up by brands and pulled-forward demand have temporarily propped up results.

Meanwhile, low-priced corporate inventories are gradually depleted, while replacement-cycle momentum keeps weakening. Data shows that for mainstream US$900 notebooks in Q3 2026, CPUs, DRAM and SSDs already account for 68% of total bill-of-materials cost, giving components far greater influence over product pricing.

Higher costs create difficult trade-offs: raising prices suppresses consumer demand; absorbing extra costs erodes gross margins; cutting hardware specifications undermines competitiveness. Overseas notebook production capacity may drop below 20% in 2027 as manufacturers rebalance production cost and operational efficiency. DRAM will remain tight, whereas NAND Flash supply may ease in the second half of 2027.

TrendForce states that the severity of the 2027 downturn will largely depend on how successfully vendors pass higher costs downstream. For spare-parts partners, this cost cycle also shapes demand for replacement batteries, storage, displays and related laptop accessories.